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Guotai Junan (601211) quarterly report comments-rebound in performance in line with expectations first layout science and technology board

Guotai Junan (601211) quarterly report comments-rebound in performance in line with expectations first layout science and technology board

On the evening of April 26, 2019, Guotai Junan released the 2019 first quarter report, and the company’s revenue in the report was 66.

95 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

22%; net profit attributable to mother is 30.

0.6 billion, an increase of 33 in ten years.

03%; ROE increased by 0 compared with the end of last year.

5 up to 2.

48%.

Investment points: performance rebounded, performance in line with expectations: The market rebounded rapidly in the first quarter of 2019, and the company’s performance rebounded accordingly, with net profit increasing by 33%.

03%, in line with market expectations.

However, from the perspective of comparable large securities firms that have already published a quarterly report, Haitong Securities (+117), which had an earlier performance, was changed.

66%), China Merchants Securities (+94.

82%) improved, mainly due to the high base and low equity underwriting in the same period last year.

The brokerage business continued to improve with the market, and Junhong App continued to empower: 1) The company achieved a net income of 15 in the first quarter.

USD 3.1 billion, an annual increase of 10.

17%, mainly due to the market recovery and the development of high net worth customers.

In 2018, the company’s trading revenue market share has increased to 6.

14%, ranking first in the industry. It is expected that the company’s brokerage business is expected to continue its strength in the context of continued market recovery in 2019; 2) The index’s net income will decrease slightly.

73%, basically stable performance, but considering that the company’s pledge business is still contracting (buy-back financial assets totaled -52.

54%), to judge the stability and improvement of the two financial services; 3) The wealth management transformation has been steadily advanced, and the monthly number of Junhong app of the company’s mobile terminal at the end of March 2019 (422).

It has maintained the top three in the industry and has exceeded 30 million users. Technology empowerment is expected to continue to improve the company’s ability to attract customers and acquire customers, forming a wealth management business model of transaction and wealth management linkage.

The investment and bond business of the investment bank was differentiated and took the lead in the layout of the science and technology board: According to wind data, the company’s equity underwriting business performed 杭州夜网 poorly in the first quarter, unchanged projects in the IPO landed, and the refinancing business only completed a single project of Laobaiganjiu. The amount of funds raised was2.

83 trillion yuan, which is longer than the leading brokers such as CICC and CITIC.

But at the same time, the latest announcement shows that the company took the lead to win the replacement approval for No. 001 of Science and Technology Board, and will participate in the mentoring work of Jingchen Semiconductor for the listing of Science and Technology Board, reflecting that the bank’s business resources are leaning towards the Science and Technology Board project, and the IPO business in the second quarter may present performance.

At the same time, debt service was relatively stable, at 876.

The amount of raised funds of 06 trillion ranked 夜来香体验网 fourth in the industry, 5.

A 53% market share is also available in 2018.

The market is warming up to resolve the pledge risk, and the impairment provision is significantly reversed: Against the background of the escalating equity pledge risk in 2018, the company has made significant provision for credit impairment losses based on prudence.

76 trillion, including 4 in the fourth quarter.

3.2 billion yuan.

However, the rapid rebound of the market in the first quarter of 2019 led to a substantial easing of pledge risks, and the company also switched back to pledge impairment provisions (and some two-finance impairment provisions) 3.

7.5 billion yuan.

If the market continues to pick up in the second quarter, the improvement of the company’s asset quality will further improve, and the reversal of impairment may continue.

The high base resulted in a change in investment income: the company’s investment income in the first quarter was 15.

US $ 6.5 billion, which is a reasonable level for similar large-scale securities firms, but the annual decline has reached 36.

4%, mainly due to the company’s disposal of the subsidiary Guolian’an Fund Management Co., Ltd. 51% of the distribution in the same period last year, resulting in up to 24.

Investment income of 6.2 billion US dollars, high base effect led to self-operated investment income.

Complete the placement of Hong Kong shares to further strengthen its capital strength: On April 17, 2019, the company completed the placement of new H shares1.

9.4 billion shares, the price of preparations 16.34 manufacturing / shares, accounting for H shares and share capital after placing 13.
.

94% and above 2.

18%, the total number of shares increased to 8,907,945,470 shares, the total proceeds from the placement is about 31.

70 billion feet.

The company’s capital strength ranks among the top two in the industry. This fundraising will further enhance the capital advantage and help leverage the market to increase options to expand the asset-heavy business such as the two industries.

Investment advice and profit forecast: The company’s comprehensive strength is strong, the advantages of the brokerage and large wealth management business, the short-term IPO downturn does not change the overall underwriting strength, and it is planned to synchronize with the recovery of the secondary market and the background of the science and technology board, the company’s performance is expectedFurther boosted.

Taking into account the low base in 2018 and the market improvement expectations in 2019 (rapid market recovery + accelerated reform of the capital market), the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019/2020/2021 is expected to be 90.

53/96.

89/101.

09 billion, an increase of 34 each year.

96/6.

99% / 4.

36%, BVPS is 14 respectively.

91/15.

57/16.

33 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PB is 1.

30/1.

24/1.

18 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk reminders: Macroeconomic continues to decline; policy supervision exceeds expectations; tight liquidity of funds; trading sentiment falls